At any rate, I read the daily forcasts from NOAA often enough that I kind of have a feel for the forcasters. So it was with some suprise that I read this on today's forcast:
THE LACK OF A DISTINT MESOSCALE VORTEX FROM THE EASTWARD MOVING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER RESPONSE TO THIS
HEATING WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE "LOOKING-OUT-THE-WINDOW" MODEL
INDICATES EXCELLENT INSOLATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST AFTERNOON
POPS ARE THEREFORE OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS.
It helps to understand that NOAA uses a dozen or so different forcasting models along with some common sense to come up with their forcast for a period. So this "looking-out-the-window" model is funny.